Hey!

Welcome to Flywheel, a weekly exploration of owned and used micromobility. Each newsletter will highlight an observation of trends emerging in the industry and feature five of the most interesting vehicles/hardware in micromobility.

If you were forwarded this post and found it interesting, I would appreciate it if you subscribed to Flywheel!

The observation of the week is a guest column by Peter Woolery that compares peer-to-peer marketplaces and stock-to-sales ratios. This week’s featured vehicles are a one-wheeled eboard, an etrike, a hybrid scrambler, and an ultra-lightweight folding ebike.

Observation of the Week

I’m super excited to introduce Peter Woolery, who is joining as a guest columnist on this week’s Flywheel. Peter is the founder of Bicycle Market Research, a bike retail data research firm, and the former CFO of Summit Bicycles, the Bay Area’s largest Trek retailer. Please welcome Peter:

Comparing peer-to-peer marketplaces and stock-to-sales ratios

In reading the Flywheel newsletter, I have come to appreciate the high quality case studies and market analysis that can be derived from Craigslist data. This is especially salient for me because my company, Bicycle Market Research LLC, developed a used market monitoring tool for People for Bikes (PFB), the industry trade group. Right now, we are focused on Peer-to-Peer marketplaces with Craigslist, Ebay, Facebook, and Mercari in scope. In the future, we will expand this to provide insights on Trade-In businesses, and other classifieds based listing platforms to PFB members.

The bikes found on Craigslist are similar to Facebook marketplace in terms of the category distribution, and surprisingly, not many are cross posted on both platforms. This likely speaks to the friction of managing posts on both, and the role that sellers play in the process. We have to keep in mind that for Peer-to-Peer marketplaces, individuals are the sellers, and often are selling the bike in their limited free time. This means that when they commit to a platform, there is significantly diminished motivation to also list on another.

This platform separation is more noticeable when we look at the contrast with eBay. With it’s transaction fees, and more defined structure, eBay tends to feature higher end bikes from traditional bike categories like mountain and road bikes. Although electric bikes are growing on the platform, the volume of eBikes listed on eBay is much smaller than Craigslist or Facebook.

Though when we look at electric mountain bikes (eMTB) above $2,000, the share of bikes listed on eBay jumps up to nearly 10%. This echos the core strength of eBay being road and mountain bikes in the premium segment. Even with that said, electric bikes on all platforms have a lower stock to sale ratio. This metric is used to gauge how well matched the available supply is to demand. Specifically, we look at the volume of sales in a given time period over the volume of new listings in that period. Nearly always, new supply outstrips new sales. This could lead to an over supply of bikes building up, except that we have to remember that sellers on these platforms have more than just an economic interest in the bikes. There is a utility value to the bike (i.e. they could ride it, rather than sell it; or keep it as a spare bike). In addition, individuals’ tolerance for transactional friction is much lower than that of businesses. As a result of these factors, a large portion of unsold new listings are simply delisted, rather than being refreshed by sellers.

The category with the best match between supply and demand (stock to sale ratio) is electric bikes, with a ratio of 1.75 for H1 2024. This means that for every bike sold, there is 1.75 listed. Interestingly, the ratios in different categories have converged in H1 2024 compared to H2 2023, where Electric was closer to 1.4 and Road was above 3.0. This shows how seasonality affects supply and demand in these marketplaces differently. It should be noted that Craigslist is excluded from our sales data because there is no formal mechanism to flag a post as sold. At some point we plan to provide inferred sales estimates for Craigslist to People for Bikes members, but we will need a larger sample for that.

Within electric bikes, the stock to sales ratio varies based on the price of the bike. The lowest priced electric bikes (below $200) have the lowest stock to sales ratio, below 1.5. Similarly, as the price goes up, the stock to sales ratio goes up. This likely reflects the care and thought going into the different prices of bikes. But wait a minute, I hear some of you saying, $200 sounds like an incredibly cheap bike, is that real?

It doesn’t take long to find low cost ebikes available for purchase online. Many people erroneously point at direct to consumer (DTC) brands, claiming that the lowest priced and lowest quality bikes come from them. But when you look at the shipping company for sub-$500 ebikes, you quickly see that they are coming from Amazon, Walmart, and other massmarket sellers. Most brands competing at those ultra low levels need high order volumes, which these retailers provide. In contrast, DTC brands tend to focus on categories of bikes where they can handle the volume, customer support, etc in house. So while mass market ebikes average somewhere around the $650 mark, according to data provider Circana, DTC brands usually have their ebikes priced between $1,000 and $2,000. There are certainly examples of prices outside this range, like Lectric’s ~$800 XP series, and Vintage Electric’s Roadsters selling for $5,000+. But it is safe to say that DTC brands average somewhere just south of $2,000

Finally, we have the traditional bike shop brands, which have historically fallen closer to $3500 on average at retail. This is true both in the US and in Europe. These brands tend to focus on performance, quality, and overall level of service. Does this mean these bikes are better? For some use cases, yes, but not for everyone. Recent participation data from People for Bikes and the National Sporting Goods Association both point toward an influx of more casual riders during the pandemic. Those riders may not value the additional performance offered by the traditional brands in the same way, hence the growth of other brands. And now, with Trek expanding into DTC, and Radpower into traditional bike shops, we are seeing more of a homogenization of sales channels.

How does this relate to the second hand markets? It goes to show that the bikes available on retail and used markets are not as easily delineated into good or low quality as they once were. DTC brands are also interested in improved safety, as additional certifications and battery protections implemented by RadPower have recently shown. Thankfully, with the volume of ebike sales increasing, the threshold at which safety can be achieved is decreasing. This will take some time to trickle down to second hand markets, so one  of the best resources that buyers should use is Flywheel’s Vehicle Safety Guide to double check that a bike has been tested to some threshold.

For more observations and resources on owned and used micromobility, check out rideflywheel.com/resources.

Featured Vehicles of the Week

1. Onewheel GT S-Series | $2,900

Recently refreshed, the Onewheel GT S-Series is a one-wheeled Segway-esque self-balancing electric board designed for off-roading enthusiasts. Onewheel is a maverick and an OG of the micromobility space, and has steadily built a cult following since its launch in 2013 due to its extremely unique design. Unlike other eboards that use 4 small skateboard/longboard wheels, Onewheels use one fat pneumatic tire to give riders a remarkable handling and carving ability. This one fat-tire configuration also makes Onewheels extremely smooth when riding over bumpy terrain, which is why they’ve become the most common eboard seen on both rough city streets and off-road trails. The GT S-Series takes Onewheel’s off-roading capabilities and optimizes them a step further. Its powertrain features a 113V hub motor, which is 50% higher than that of Onewheel’s previous models, and the battery pack is made of automotive-grade 21700 NMC cells. This gives the GT S-Series a 25mph max speed and a 16mi to 25mi range. The hub motor is surrounded by a 11.5” by 6.5” fat pneumatic tire with performance treads that are designed for higher stability and a wider profile. Onewheels also have impeccable motor controls, and the vehicles’ aggressiveness, turn, stance, and acceleration profiles can all be meticulously configured in the Onewheel app. The GT S-Series is also offered in a Rally edition, which features a more compact motor, a more voluminous tire, better tread, and a Recurve Rails feature (“a new asymmetric rail geometry [that] offer[s] improved control and leverage without sacrificing clearance to handle the most rugged terrain and the steepest gradients.”). Listing can be found here.

2. Easybike G16 | $1,950

The Easybike G16 is a recently launched innovative full-suspension escooter that is so comfortable to ride that it feels like an ebike. Its powertrain features a 750W rear hub motor and a 676Wh battery pack, giving it a 28mph max speed. The G16 is heavier than most escooters, clocking in at 49.6lbs. That being said, this weight is more than worth it given the performance and rideability of this vehicle. In addition to the supersized powertrain, the G16 has a full suspension suite. The front suspension fork and rear swingarm shock are mountain-bike grade components, which means that they’re far more effective than the vanity suspension systems most escooters have. The G16 also has a unique tire configuration where the 16” front tire is larger than the 12.5” rear tire. Even the rear wheel is bigger than those found on other escooters, and the larger front wheel than rear wheel helps with the vehicle’s take-on angle when going over bumps on the road. Additionally, and perhaps most notably, the G16 has an extra wide platform so that it can be ridden in a forward facing stance. This is similar to the Taur and Pure which both have forward facing parallel foot platforms. Rounding out the G16 are several ebike-esque accessories, ranging from a rear rack to an optional trailer accessory. The G16 is an impressive hybrid of an escooter and ebike, offering the stability of an ebike but the portability of an escooter (particularly given its folding stem and handlebars). Easybike has begun selling G16s locally in Tel Aviv and is currently working on setting up a dealer network to expand distribution globally. Listing can be found here.

3. Mooncool TK1 | $1,899

The Mooncool TK1 is a new folding class-2 etrike and the latest entrant in the new generation of three-wheelers led by Rad Power’s RadTrike and Lectric’s XP Trike. Etrikes were originally designed as vehicles for seniors and others that may struggle with balancing a two-wheeled bike, but they have quickly become popular with parents looking for an ebike that is easy to stabilize when carrying kids or cargo. The TK1 has several expanded features for this emerging use-case. Its powertrain consists of a high power 55Nm motor mounted in a jackshaft configuration (in between the two rear wheels) and a 696Wh battery pack. This allows the TK1 to hit a top speed of 16mph, which is the roughly the fastest you can go on a tadpole etrike before you risk tipping over. The TK1 is comfortable to ride due to its front suspension fork and plush 20” by 3” tires, and it’s hydraulic disc brakes are powerful enough to quickly stop the vehicle even when loaded to its 350lbs max payload capacity. Rounding out the TK1 are several utility-minded features like a parking brake, turn signals, and front and rear baskets. The TK1’s closest competitor is the Lectric XP Trike, which features a similar motor configuration and powertrain specs but is a a tad slower and doesn’t have a front suspension fork. That being said, Lectric has a far more comprehensive servicing network. Listing can be found here.

4. Ride1Up Revv 1 | $1,500 | SF - Bay Area

The Ride1Up Revv 1 is a class 2/class-3 hybrid scrambler. Although it may just look like yet another scrambler copy-cat of Super73 and Juiced, the Revv 1 is an exceptionally robust ebike that rides with the stability of an emoped or emotorcycle. Its monstrous powertrain features a 95Nm Bafang geared rear hub motor and a 1040Wh battery pack. The Revv 1 is capped to a class-2 20mph mode out of the box, but it can be unlocked to a class-3 28mph mode or even an off-road 37mph mode. Both the class-3 and Off-road modes can only be activated by a Ride1Up dealer, which is a prudent safety measure I admire that introduces a deliberate hurdle to discourage improper and unsafe usage of the Revv 1 in public areas like bike lanes. Lastly, the Revv 1 tempers its powertrain with a high-quality frame, 20” by 4” fat tires, dual suspension, and hydraulic brakes to ensure that the ride has the stability to match its performance. This listing is a 2023 model with a mileage of 393mi and is already unlocked to class-3 mode. Listing can be found here.

5. Gocycle GS | $2,000 | Washington DC

The Gocycle GS is an ultra-lightweight class-2 folding ebike. Founded by former McLaren engineer Richard Thorpe, Gocycle crafts elegantly designed, automotive-grade ebikes. The GS is one of their flagship models, and it’s best known for its ultra-light magnesium alloy frame and highly-portable frame. The GS also has removable short 20” wheels and a folding frame, which make it exceptionally convenient for storage or transportation. Its powertrain features a discreet 15Nm front hub motor that is controlled by a torque sensor and a 292Wh battery that are both stealthily integrated into the frame. This powertrain is paired with a maintenance-free enclosed 3-speed transmission, hydraulic disc brakes, and a rear suspension to make the GS both agile and comfortable to ride. This powertrain is certainly weaker than that of most other folding ebikes, but this is really a vehicle you buy moreso for its portability than its performance. This listing is in excellent condition (Flywheel estimated mileage of 561.84mi) and has a transferrable registration. Listing can be found here.

That’s it for this edition. Thanks again for joining, see you next week!

- Puneeth Meruva